The Cold War

The big three during World War II — were President Franklin Roosevelt, British Prime Minister Winston Churchill and Soviet premier Joseph Stalin. In February 1945 they met in Crimea for what was arguably the most important diplomatic event of the 20th century: the Yalta conference. Stalin promised that free and fair elections would be held in Eastern Europe — which was controlled by his vast Red Army. Those elections were never held — and the countries in question — Poland, Czechoslovakia, Hungary, Romania, and Bulgaria — were taken over by communist governments.

This reality was acknowledged a year later by Churchill — during a speech in Fulton, Missouri:

The guns of the second world war had barely cooled — and now Churchill warned of a new threat — a threat posed by the Soviet Union and its communist system.

It was the unofficial beginning of a new war — the Cold War. And disinformation — the manufacturing and spreading of knowingly and deliberately false information — would play a huge role.

I’m Paul Brandus — and that’s the name of this series — it’s called, simply — disinformation.

The topic of disinformation is huge, ever-evolving and touches upon every nook and cranny of our society. War and peace, the economy, politics, elections, culture, finance, religion, our belief system, everything. And today — anyone theoretically, can do it — anyone can manipulate audio, video, make things up — and post it online.

How did we get to this point? Can we somehow control it? Who’s doing it? How — and why? This series - a co-production of Evergreen and Emergent Risk International - a global risk advisory firm — is devoted to exploring these complex and intertwined issues.

In our last episode, we discussed Disinformation and World War II — why World War II? Because it laid the foundation for our world today. In this episode, we talk about what came next. When the Iron Curtain descended across the continent — as Churchill so eloquently put it — the Cold War was on. And Disinformation played a huge role.

Meredith Wilson is chief executive officer of Emergent Risk International. Prior to this she spent several years with the Defense Intelligence Agency and in the private sector – primarily in the oil and gas industry.

So — in terms of disinformation — what was Moscow’s strategy during the Cold War?

Paul Kolbe is the Director of the Intelligence Project at Harvard University’s Belfer Center. He spent 25 years in the CIA’s Directorate of Operations in a variety of positions — including operational and leadership roles in the former Soviet Union. In terms of disinformation — he says what the Soviets did then — during the Cold War — sounds aw fully familiar now.

Weaken the United States? Foment division? Try and divide NATO? Win hearts and minds in Asia and Africa? As we consider current events — I’m obviously talking about the Russian invasion of Ukraine — it’s clear that when it comes to disinformation — the Russians have just dusted off their old playbook.

But there’s more to it than this. Calder Walton — also with Harvard’s Belfer Center — is Assistant Director of its Applied History Project and Intelligence Project. He’s written widely and deeply on intelligence history — and its lessons for today.

Walton’s point is a good one. It’s important to remember that a dictatorship, a police state — like the Soviet Union was — and arguably Russia is today under Vladimir Putin — uses disinformation not only against others — like us — but also against their own people. It’s why most Russians today, for example, appear to buy what the Kremlin and its state-run media tells them about the war in Ukraine. We’ll explore this in a future episode. But now — back to the Cold War.

Rare sound from August 29, 1949 — of the first Soviet atomic test. The United States no longer had a monopoly on nuclear weapons. But unlike the U-S, the Soviets had no way of delivering such a weapon. They had no long-range missiles, no long-range bombers.

But by 1955 — the Soviets had found a way.

At this Moscow air show — the Soviets unveiled a long-range bomber called that WE called the “Bison.” — they called it the “Molot” - or “Hammer.” And they flew 18 of them before an audience of western diplomats and military attaches.

They flew the planes in front of everyone — they’d disappear beyond the horizon — loop back and fly over again — and again. It was a clever ruse — clever disinformation — conveying the exaggerated impression that the Soviets had lots of nuclear bombers — more than we did. Here again: Calder Walton:

In the first episode of this series, I explained how WE used disinformation to fool the Nazis about our capabilities and intentions. Now the Soviets — were doing the same thing — to us.

This underscores one of the fundamental challenges of dealing WITH disinformation — then and now — and it is this: How do you separate fact from fiction? In the case of the bomber gap, Walton says it led to mistakes — on our part.

Speaking of faulty assumptions — the so-called “bomber gap” led to the so-called “missile gap” — which became a major issue in the 1960 presidential election between Richard Nixon and John F. Kennedy. It came up in one of their debates:

In retrospect we know that this wasn’t true either — and as a sidebar — there’s some evidence that Kennedy knew it wasn’t true — but charging that the Republicans were soft on defense made for a good campaign issue.

The long Cold War — which ran from 1945 until 1991, when the Soviet Union collapsed — has numerous other examples of disinformation. Arguably the most famous — or infamous — concerns a hoax that the Soviets perpetrated in the 1980s. That story in just a moment.

Perhaps the most notorious example of Cold War disinformation began in July 1983 — when a newspaper in New Delhi, India — it was called the “Patriot” — ran a story. Here’s the FIRST paragraph of that story:

“AIDS the deadly, mysterious disease which has caused havoc in the U.S., is believed to be the result of the Pentagon’s experiments to develop new and dangerous biological weapons.”

Now that these menacing experiments seem to have gone out of control, plans are being hatched to hastily transfer them from the U-S to other countries - primarily developing nations where governments are pliable to Washington’s pressures and persuasion.”

Again — that was July 1983. One tiny third-world newspaper. But then — the story began to spread. Other newspapers picked it up. Asia, Africa, Europe. And then:

It winds up on the CBS Evening News. That’s Dan Rather — on March 30th, 1987. A story about a virus — spreading LIKE a virus — all around the world.

How on earth does this happen? Here again — veteran intelligence officer Paul Kolbe:

Publications like a tiny newspaper — in India. It’s really quite masterful.

And Calder Walton adds that there’s a crucial element as to why cons like this spread so easily — it’s a human dynamic that’s obviously with us today — and probably always will be.

This isn’t rocket science. The story was planted, dressed up, the Soviets got a scientist from allied East Germany to back it up. Walton says it’s the perfect combination of the right story at the right time — and taking advantage of those who were probably inclined to believe it.

Of course, not every disinformation campaign is successful — but when they are, the falsehoods can plant deep roots. Even today — decades later — there are those who still believe that the United States government developed the AIDS virus.

Let’s take a step back and explain something. Americans often think that all the KGB did during the Cold War — and all its successor — the FSB — does now is collect intelligence through technical or human means. As the Russians might say — (in Russian) — this is not true. Its principal activity is disinformation — or ideological subversion.

Yuri Bezmenov spent years working for the KGB in India — posing as a journalist. He defected in 1970 — and after being debriefed by the CIA, he settled in Canada. He gave this interview in 1984:

This brainwashing takes a long time, Bezmemov says. And with the United States in mind, the first objective is to demoralize us — to make us lose confidence in our system, distrust our institutions, and divide us whenever possible.

These things might sound familiar in America today — of course who gets the credit or the blame for that — is another question. Same thing about the next step, which Bezmenov says is the destabilization of our system. He says it only takes a few years to have people question whether our government, our system, is stable or not.

The third stage sounds familiar too. Given our recent history — the aftermath of our last election and the storming of the Capitol — Bezmenov’s words — again, spoken four decades ago — sound eerie:

So — a long-term disinformation campaign — this former KGB operative claims — plants the seeds for eventual destabilization — followed by a possible overthrow of the government.

It sounds like some very recent American history — but you decide for yourself.

Meanwhile — Paul Kolbe — the longtime CIA veteran — agrees that Soviet intelligence officers then, and Russians now — spend a huge amount of time on disinformation and active measures.

The Andropov that Kolbe is referring to was Yuri Andropov, who ran the KGB for 15 years before becoming Soviet leader himself in 1982.

Of course the great irony here is that while the Soviets were working so hard to undermine the West from within — to weaken it, to make Americans disillusioned and cynical — to foment destabilization — their OWN system, built on lies — and its own disillusionment and cynicism — was collapsing.

Soviet leader Mikhail Gorbachev — in August 1991 — the interpreter telling the world he was cut off — as a coup toppled the Soviet government. The coup failed after a few days — but by year’s end — the Soviet Union was finished.

And that was it — the Cold War was over.

The Soviet Union — the Soviet empire — spanning eleven time zones —splintered into 15 countries. But while the Soviet Union was no more — its intelligence agencies — and practices — remained.

Eight years later, on New Year’s Eve 1999 — the final day of the 20th century — a longtime KGB man — took over. His name: Vladimir Putin.

The powers of the state have been turned over to me — he said. That was nearly a quarter-century ago. Putin would later call the collapse of the Soviet Union — the greatest geopolitical catastrophe of the 20th century.

The greatest catastrophe of the 20th century? Not World War II — when some 25 million Soviet citizens were killed? Not the Holocaust? No. It was — HE thought — the peaceful dissolution of the Soviet empire. That, Vladimir Putin would say, that was the worst of all.

And as the world now well knows — the once-and-forever KGB man would like to glue that empire back together. Here he’s announcing the beginning of the war in Ukraine — of course — he’s using disinformation on his own people, calling it quote — a special military operation. It seems that while the Soviet Union is history — the traditional reliance on disinformation remains very much alive and very much a key pillar of Russian efforts to advance its agenda.

In our NEXT episode:

The weaponizing of free speech — and with social media as an accelerant.

Thanks to Meredith Wilson, Paul Kolbe, and Calder Walton. Also to the National Archives, CBS and Stanford University.

Our Sound designer, editor and engineer Noah Foutz.

Executive producers Michael DeAloia and Gerardo Orlando.

I’m Paul Brandus — thanks so much for listening.