Reed Galen: Getting in Trump’s Head

Ken Harbaugh:

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Reed Galen:

If any of these guys had to knife one another to get ahead, they would in a heartbeat, they would not stop. Because again, at the end of the day, they don't care about anything. It's not about the opportunity to serve America. It's about the opportunity to turn Americans into subjects.

There's no coherent morality, there's no coherent philosophy, there's no coherent political program. They're a gang, Ken. Power, money territory. That's it.

Ken Harbaugh:

I'm Ken Harbaugh, and this is Burn the Boats, a podcast about big decisions.

My guest today is Reed Galen, co-founder of The Lincoln Project and host of The Lincoln Project Podcast. He's an independent political strategist who has spent years advising Fortune 50 companies and has also, worked on several prominent Republican campaigns.

Reed, welcome to the show.

Reed Galen:

Thanks for having me, Ken.

Ken Harbaugh:

You have figured out at The Lincoln Project how to get inside Trump's head. Was that part of the strategy from the beginning, from the creation of The Lincoln Project, or did you come to that realization later that the things you were doing, the videos you were putting out weren't just speaking to voters, but they were being mainlined by the former president?

Reed Galen:

First and foremost, thanks for having me, Ken.

It actually goes back to a year or even more before The Lincoln Project launched. There would be these meetings of very earnest establishment Republicans in these beautiful salons in Washington DC.

And everybody would sit around and go, “Okay, we have to make Trump look like a loser. We have to get them on policy.” There would be the idea of, “Okay, well, we have to separate him from the party. He's not really a Republican.”

And I would sit there, Rick Wilson, my co-founder, would sit there and others who were more in the, I would say, fighting vein of the attendees, less the sort of inside the beltway class and be like, “This isn't going to work, guys. Like I understand what you're trying to say, but you have to go at him.”

“You have to go after him individually, directly, and all the time because if you call him a jerk, he doesn't care. And the people that love him love him because he's a jerk. If you call him every name, you make fun of his hair, you make fun of his skin, you make fun of his weight, like all that stuff like has a little bit of an effect.”

But the reason why we ultimately decided that what we call the audience of one strategy was effective was a couple of things. Logistical. He's a lonely, cranky, sad old man, Ken. He doesn't have any friends.

So, he sits in front of the television, in front of Fox News every night and yells at the TV with his TiVo in one hand and his phone in the other.

And so, we knew that in the context of 2020, especially, remember this is deep COVID, he's just sitting in the residence by himself. Like Melania is not hanging out with him. Baron's not hanging out with him. Nobody else is hanging out with him. So, just sitting there with an overdone cheeseburger and french fries.

And so, we very quickly realized that you could directly talk to him, because remember like Jim Carrey and the cable guy, like where TV was the medium of his youth, that's for Trump too. Still, even now, TV is his main medium. If he sees it on television, he believes it.

And so, what was necessary to do was to find a way to break through the reality distortion field that Trump has been incredibly successful at creating for himself. Because when you pierce that bubble, he can't handle it.

And that's why you see whether or not it was almost four years ago when we launched this ad called Mourning in America, which was sort of the Hal Riney 1984 ad in the minor key about how badly America was going to suffer from COVID under his leadership, such, such as it was, he went nuts.

And this is the other secret, is if he had just ignored us four years ago, Ken, you and I probably wouldn't be having this conversation. No one really ever would've heard of us.

But because he attacked us on Twitter, by name organizationally and by name individually, we went from a sort of a quirky little interesting band to people raising 10, 11, $12 million a month, all directly aimed at him.

Ken Harbaugh:

I'm going to play that out and then ask you about it afterwards.

Lincoln Project Ad:

There's mourning in America. Today, more than 60,000 Americans have died from a deadly virus Donald Trump ignored. With the economy in shambles, more than 26 million Americans are out of work, the worst economy in decades. Trump bailed out Wall Street, but not Main Street.

This afternoon, millions of Americans will apply for unemployment. And with their savings run out, many are giving up hope. Millions worry that a loved one won't survive COVID-19.

There's mourning in America. And under the leadership of Donald Trump, our country is weaker, and sicker, and poorer. And now, Americans are asking if we have another four years like this, will there even be an America?

Paid for by The Lincoln Project, which is responsible for the content of this advertising.

Ken Harbaugh:

So, Reed, is this a new thing in political messaging? The audience have won idea. I've never seen it before. I think people have questioned its effectiveness. I don't, because you get inside his OODA loop. Are you familiar with that term?

Reed Galen:

Of course, yes. Oh, yes, I read the book.

Ken Harbaugh:

Great. Explain the advantages of disrupting the opponent's decision-making strategy.

Reed Galen:

Sure. Well, I mean, the thing to understand about Trump is it's a double-edged sword for Trump. One is it makes our Democratic friends really happy.

And it gets attention from the mainstream media and earned media. And that's really where the view count ticks up. Because as soon as members of the media start picking it up, it sort of takes on a life of its own.

But the strategic purpose behind it was twofold. One, as you said, was to get inside his head. And remember that for a guy like Donald Trump, he is the alpha and the omega of his operation. It begins and ends with him.

It's to your point about normal political messaging. Most of the time you have a presidential candidate, they're on the road all the time, or if they're at home, they're not watching television.

And so, if you shoot an ad directly at them, like there's a really good chance they're not going to see it. And even if they saw it like they'd ignore it because like it's just not the thing they're going to do.

And if it was so over the top and so egregious and so offensive, or whatever the thing was, that the campaign had to respond, then the campaign would respond. Not the candidate on Twitter or screaming to a New York Times reporter. That's just not how it normally works.

But so, you have Mourning in America, then right after, George Floyd's murder, we put out an ad called Flag of Treason. And this was about the Confederate flag. And it was basically asking Trump whether or not he was going to stand with the American flag or the Confederate flag.

Now, we knew that he would go crazy, but he wouldn't go after the Confederate flag as a symbol of racism, disunity trees and whatever it was, because it was the strategic box canyon we wanted him in.

Which was, we wanted him to by omission, defend the Confederate flag, if that makes sense. Which would then, in the context of that moment, where there was so much racial tension, push him further and further away from the mainstream.

Then look, we had China, we got his campaign manager fired.

And so, all of that, through his campaign and atonement, look, people would say it's really not cool to make ads about Ivanka Trump. Okay, well, it wasn't great for Jared and Ivanka to kill half a million Americans either, but they did.

And so, why did we do that? Because we knew that either she would see it or somebody else would see it and go tell her, and she would run down the hall of the West Wing to the Oval Office and go, “Daddy, daddy, did you see what they just did?”

And because again, everything starts and ends with him, and this was the strategic purpose in that moment, was to get him to focus on us as his prime opponent, as opposed to Joe Biden, whose campaign was still sort of getting up and running.

Ken Harbaugh:

This messaging strategy only works with a person like Trump as the target. It's not replicable. You can't go after Joe Biden the same way if you're on the other side, it seems like a once in a lifetime opportunity for a political messaging person like you.

Do you think Trump will ever learn that he's being played every time you run one of these ads and get inside his head? It doesn't seem like he will. And we only got a few months left.

Reed Galen:

Yeah, he probably won't. I know that his people have been all over him about not responding to anything. Which is very difficult for him. But really sometimes it's time and place. Sometimes you run it and he sees it. More often you run it and he sees it and he'll say something.

But also, look, here's the other part too, is even if he doesn't see it, because again, remember this is about rifle shots, not shotgun shells, is you can run it into Mar-a-Lago or Bedminster, where he spends most of his time, on Fox News locally, on the local cable station.

And then if you really want to screw with him, you put it on say the Golf Channel and ESPN during the day, so the guys at the clubhouse see it. Because they're going to tell him. And so, even if he doesn't see it personally, it'll infect the ecosystem.

Now, I will say the other person this worked with was Ron DeSantis, because he was also, just so thin skinned.

But the difference was, I think it was a couple of years ago, he had sort of snubbed Trump, but there was a hurricane coming. And so, they had activated the emergency operation center there in Tallahassee.

So, we started running ads taunting DeSantis on the weather channel because they had it running in the big EOC. And so, everybody's going nuts.

But again, for the most part, this doesn't work. It has to be a very thin-skinned flinty, self-obsessed absorbed narcissist to really get it to work.

Ken Harbaugh:

Well, you take micro-targeting to a whole new level. I didn't realize you were actually thinking through what channel he's watching, at what time of the day. It really is an audience of one. I mean, you're thinking through it that carefully.

Reed Galen:

Yeah, look, I mean, he watches Fox News the night side. But Hannity's his favorite because Hannity's been his number one cheerleader for however long. So, I mean, Hannity when Tucker was on. But yeah, that 9:00, 10:00 PM. He stays up late, he gets up late it. It's not that hard to find him.

And again, he's sitting in the bridal suite at Mar-a-Lago, he could play DJ in the dining room all he wants, but at the end of the day, like he goes by himself. There's nobody hanging out with him.

Ken Harbaugh:

What's the best response you've gotten from him? Can you share an example of a case where one of your ads has gotten inside his decision loop, disrupted a messaging cycle from his campaign and gotten them off message? I mean, make the case for this audience of one strategy?

Reed Galen:

Sure. So, back in December, we'd about had it with all of the mainstream news stories about Joe Biden's age. Joe Biden's old, so is Donald Trump. The difference is Donald Trump's old, and insane, and malicious.

There's a saying, you can cut these ads with scissors, that's how easy they are. And so, you just line up 54 seconds worth of Trump not knowing where he is, mispronouncing somebody's name. Having one of those … sort of things he has. Put that up in early December.

And what happens? He goes on his Truth social thing and accuses us of using AI to create that ad. Now, why did we create the ad? We created the ad to make him realize that he too is old. He's scared to death of death.

I mean, he's a germaphobe, he's vaccinated to the gills. He doesn't like being around people if he doesn't have to be because he's really scared of dying. I mean, that's not an unreasonable fear, but he's got it to the nth degree.

But what did he do? He then attacked us. And then that created you have the OODA loop and then you have the Streisand effect. Which is, if he had just ignored it, it probably would've come and gone. But instead his reacting to it elevated the conversation, magnified the effect of it.

And you know what happens? Two, three, four weeks later as Iowa is happening, and now, all these national reporters are in place, and they're seeing him up close for the first time in weeks or maybe probably months, they're like, “Oh God, he really has lost it.”

Ken Harbaugh:

Can you explain the OODA loop? We're talking like military bros, but I'm sure some people are wondering what we're talking about. The OODA loop and the Streisand effect on brilliant display every time you do one of these things.

Reed Galen:

So, is it observe, orient-

Ken Harbaugh:

Decide and act.

Reed Galen:

Decide, act. And so, you see what's going on. You orient yourself to the profile of the situation you're in. You decide to do something, and then you act.

And as soon as you act, you are immediately ready for that response. You're observing the response, you are orienting to that response. You're deciding what to do, and then you act again.

And so, because The Lincoln Project and very dynamic political organizations can move so fast because we're flat, there's no real decision tree, you can go, go, go, go, go.

While a candidate campaign, Ken, as you know, can take minutes if you're lucky, hours if you're lucky, but more likely days, at least half a day to make a decision on how to respond to something.

And the good news is Trump actually operates close to real time as well. The difference is, it's just whatever's coming out of his head. Whereas we're like, “What's the effect we're trying to have? And how can we amplify it by keeping after him?”

Look, as you know too, you have to get that fly that ooh to flywheel spinning too. Sometimes you do it and it just sort of goes … and stops. But that doesn't mean you stop doing it as a means of action, if that makes sense.

Ken Harbaugh:

What are the other major changes in this industry, if you will? Obviously, speed is a new thing. A generation ago you could think about your response. You didn't have to react instinctively. Now, you do.

What are the other elements of the new political messaging economy (and I'll get to the point here) that Democrats haven't quite figured out yet?

Reed Galen:

Well, a couple of things that I think this is something that everyone is still contending with. I think some are better at it than others.

If you think about four years ago, Twitter was the thing, this was pre Elon. Facebook was still the thing for a lot of people, but really as a fundraising mechanism, at least for us more than anything. Instagram was there and it was big. And then you had obviously Google and YouTube.

Now, you have so many more cord cutters that don't get broadcast television. And we could do three hours on the inefficacy of broadcast television as a medium. Cable television still has some utility.

But now, you have smart TVs. Where like I don't know about you Ken, but if I'm watching something on Hulu with ads, like I don't know how many prostate cancer ads I get. I mean, they've got me dialed in. But I watch the same ad like eight times, it's not very sophisticated yet.

Then you have TikTok, which suddenly roared in and gobbled up 90% of the eyeballs of people 35 and under. And it's got its own weird algorithms and it's got its own weird styles.

And look here, I'll be 48 on Friday. Like I have a TikTok account, but I never know what's going to work and what's not, because like it's not really meant for me and it's not really meant for the people I'm talking to.

And so, what I would say (you said this right before we went on) is that the video plays of your podcast get 10X what the audio listens do, because video is the thing.

Look, I listen to podcasts walking the dogs or I’m in the car, whatever, but a lot of people, especially if they work from home, they have time to watch video on YouTube or Instagram or wherever it is.

And so, I think Twitter is far less efficient than it ever was, it ever has been. And it's also, clogged up with so much ugliness that Elon has allowed back onto the platform that you really have to dig through it.

And I have no proof of this, but it wouldn't surprise me if Elon has certain groups, especially those who are maybe in the pro-democracy space, throttled so that it's less effective or your stuff comes up right alongside some awful Christian nationalist or some horrible racist.

And so, I think that speed still matters, but I think at the end of the day, you still have to have the content that is going to drive something.

And for me anyway, and this goes to long answer to your question about Democrats, is you have to remember that politics is an emotional game. You're trying to evoke a response in someone from in here, but they're going to make their decision up here.

And so, this is going to sort of get them to the right place, and then we're going to wrap rationality around it to make sense to ourselves. And so, you still have to do that.

So, when you see an ad about Ukraine, if I do an ad to you about Ukraine to soft Republicans in Wisconsin, is it about bombs and bullets? Well, that's the end result. We need $60 billion to make sure they have the gear and the armament and everything else they need to fight the Russians.

But it's really a value proposition is how do you see yourself as an American. How do you see America's place in the world? Do you see us as a leader, as a beacon of liberty? Or do you see us as Trump says, just one more country that kills people and oh, you think we're so great?

And I think that there's a lot of Americans, but I think a sizable number of Republicans too, who don't believe that, they don't want to believe America is that way. And so, that's where I think sometimes Democrats get caught up in issues. Issues are fun.

But I always think about like prescription drugs. I remember going door to door in East Las Vegas in late October, 2022, and it's me and a local volunteer. She was terrific.

And we go to a guy's door. This is a rough neighborhood, Ken. And he answers the door, and she starts, “So and so, let's talk about prescription drugs.” “I got my ballot, I don't care.” “Well, let me tell you about what senator so-and-so's going to do prescription drugs.” “I'm on my ex-wife's policy, I don't care.”

And so, then he's like, “They're all crooks.” And I go, “Look, I get it. I know exactly where you're coming from. There are days I believe you. I agree with you. But like here's the thing, is this is your only chance to have a voice. And it may not be a big voice, but it's yours.”

And it took me five, seven, nine minutes and at the end of that, Ken, the conversation went from, “I'm not going to look at it,” to, “I'll look at it, but I'm not going to promise you I'll vote.” Okay, well I got them halfway there, but that took 10 minutes. It's someone's door.

And it wasn't because of prescription drugs, it was because like do you want to sit there and look at that ballot and say, “I had the chance and I didn't take it.” I don't think most people given the option would do that.

Ken Harbaugh:

How does your work interface with like that ground game? Because at the end of the day, you're right, hearts and minds are going to be changed through conversations like that.

It's something we talk about in the film, Against All Enemies. It's got to be loved ones talking to people they care about saying, “Come on, don't fall for this guy.” And changing them that way.

Obviously, there's got to be an entire strategy reaching voters, getting inside Trump's head, all of that. Do you think about the ground game and how The Lincoln project folds into that?

Reed Galen:

I do. I mean, The Lincoln Project has a group called The Union. jointheunion.us if you're interested. About 70,000 volunteers nationwide and about a 100 partner organizations. So, that's the really the main interface into the grassroots.

But I'll say this is I think, Ken, we're going to see (and you've probably experienced this in your time in the military) maybe it's like Afghanistan. It's like a special forces operator on horseback with like a satellite receiver calling in an airstrike. It's the 15th century meets the 21st century. And I think that's-

Ken Harbaugh:

And you're the airstrike.

Reed Galen:

Yeah, but like you still got to have the guys on the horses. Because they've got to say, “Okay, this is exactly where we need to be.” And I think that you're going to have this high tech targeting stuff and look, you can basically …

If I had your cell phone number, Ken, (which I think I do, I'm sure I do) like I could target you wherever it is you are. I have your number because we know each other, but I could buy that too. Any campaign can buy that information and target your phone.

And so, the ability to target literally one-on-one is very scary. But to your point about the personal interaction, and I really do believe this, is I think that the ground game may be as important this year as it's ever been in decades.

Ken Harbaugh:

Me too.

Reed Galen:

Because there's that again, that you're going to have a better experience or more realistic experience with this. It's like your crew. Like if you guys were a drone crew and you each had your little pod in a bunker somewhere.

Like you'd get in your things, you'd put your flight suits on, whatever, you have your coffee, you get your pods, you do your work, you'd get out of your flight suits. You'd say, “Alright, see you, Bob.”

But like you're on that aircraft together. You're training together, you're in the air for however many hours together. And there's that friction that it's almost like velcro. The hooks and the loops that start to stick together. And I think that's where the in-person stuff really is important.

And again, being at someone's door is still the only way that you can get unfettered, unfiltered contact with somebody. I mean, I don't have my phone with me at the moment, but like everybody has their phone all the time.

But do you answer the door with the phone in your hand? I don't, but I mean, I guess I might if it was in my pocket. But for the most part, I don't answer the door with my phone in my hand. So, I think that it's got to be a lot of high tech and a lot of low tech.

Ken Harbaugh:

What's your favorite Lincoln Project campaign? Is there one that you're just really proud of?

Reed Galen:

I mean, ‘20 was great, but 2022 I thought was really, I thought a great exemplar of the way that we need to think about fighting for democracy in the 21st century.

So, in 2022, it's the midterm. Most people are thinking about the US House, the US Senate, legislative seats, statewide seats in different states. And we said, “That's not how we want to look at it. We want to look at it, what are the races that are going to matter most for 2024? Because that's for us, the big enchilada.”

And so, it came down to, it just happened to work out this way that in Arizona, Nevada, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Pennsylvania, y'all had gubernatorial races. And some of them, I think Arizona, Nevada, and Michigan had secretaries of state races too.

So, we focused on those places so that we could make sure that come 2024, in this case, pro-democracy candidates or pro-democracy officials, they happen to be Democrats because that's the only pro-democracy party left, we’re in power.

So, Katie Hobbs and Adrian Fontes in Arizona. I can't recall the Secretary of State in Nevada, but that's a Democrat there.

Joe Lombardo's the Republican governor but like he's a cop, probably not stealing anything. Tony Evers wins in Wisconsin. Gretchen Whitmer and Jocelyn Benson win in Michigan.

And then Josh Shapiro just blows, what's his name? Crazy Mastriano out of the water. And again, that's an appointed position.

So, like those were the places we saw as the keys to moving the Democratic ball forward. Some people could say it was the House, some people could say it was the Senate.

But again, the truth is that most of this stuff that's going to matter, we're 50 independent states with different rules and everything else.

This November, we'll have 50 individual elections that will ladder up to an electoral college count. And so, that was the one where I was most proud of understanding. And really, it's not me, it was the political and the targeting guys who said, “Here's really the strategy we should follow.”

Because again, not having a candidate, not having a party gives you a lot of flexibility to say, “Okay, what do we need to do? Where do we need to do it? And how can we best apply the skills we have to go make it happen?”

Ken Harbaugh:

I'm going to get a little personal here because I've talked to a lot of your co-conspirators over at The Lincoln project, and I'm struck by how different their motivations are for doing the work they're doing compared to other political operatives.

I mean, it's largely patriotism, but there are elements of, like in the case of Stuart Stevens, some guilt and some shame. And that's a level of emotional honesty you don't normally get from political operatives.

What drives you as a former Republican to charge so hard at the party you once belong to, the head of the party? I mean, what is getting you out of bed every day to frankly take real risks, not just professionally, but personally to do this work?

Reed Galen:

I think it's a couple of things. One is, and I’m a amateur historian, so like I have plenty of stuff, I got 40 books lined up here, Ken, I still have it read that I've got to get through. But I read a lot of history. I have a very deep understanding of the history of authoritarian movements and how they work.

And look, my family left I don't know if it was Poland, or Lithuania, or Belarus at the time, but we left in like 1905. We got the hell out of dodge in Eastern Europe.

But I think about what happens when authoritarians become totalitarians, and we see that in a place like Russia now, or China, where life is arbitrary. And I don't like that.

I'm a small L liberal. I'm a small D democrat. I still have enough of a libertarian streak in me to say like, I don't like any … well, listen, I'm unemployable other than this, Ken. Like I don't like being told what to do.

But that all goes into this sort of undying belief. And I think that's really what has been the driver underneath all of it in any successful organization like this, is that you got to believe in it. You can't phone it in.

And to your point, like the professional stuff, okay. The personal stuff, you got to take that stuff seriously.

But you have to ask yourself … it's like that great line from Patton. When your grandson's sitting on your knee and he says, “Granddad, what did you do in the Great World War II?” You won't have to say, “Well, I shoveled shit in Louisiana.”

Like this sounds really strange and it's probably sounds incredibly self-serving, Ken, but if there's going to be a fight for our time, I'm sure as hell glad I'm here for it. If that makes sense.

Ken Harbaugh:

Yeah, me too.

Reed Galen:

Because to your point, going to bed at night, did I do what I could? I did. Do you always do the best you could? Do you always do everything you could? No, but you wake up in the morning and you don't have to look in the mirror going, “What am I doing to myself? Or what have I rationalized away?”

And I have lots of friends, Ken, like that, who have done that. Some of them are in the deep end of the Trump swimming pool. Others are in the kitty pool saying, “I have a business, I have this, I have that. Or I don't want to get involved.” And that's their choice.

Do I fault some of them for it? Those that I know, know better, yeah. Others, I just have to say I'm not surprised. And if I'm not surprised, why am I going to spend my time getting upset?

Ken Harbaugh:

Are you ever surprised that we are friends? I mean, the alliances that have formed to meet this moment, this political moment, they're the kinds of relationships I never would've imagined just a few years ago. We should be at each other's throats, but we're not because of the moment we're in.

Do you ever pinch yourself and think, “Wow, these are crazy times. And the people I thought were friends are not. And the people I thought were political foes are actually on the same side.”

Reed Galen:

Probably not so much anymore, just because I mean, we launched four and a half years ago so we've been at it a long time. But I will say this is that again, I think it goes back to that belief that we're all in this together.

Look, there are some people who don't want to work with us for whatever reason, whether it's the name or we're former Republicans, and like that's fine. Coalition fighting is hard, as you know, it's never easy and everybody's got competing interests.

But what I like to say, Ken, is we don't have to agree on everything. We just have to agree on one thing. And look, the truth is that my evolution has probably taken me much closer to your place in the world than where I started.

Let's be clear, when I was a kid or even a younger Republican, you could be a Republican, you could be a conservative or you could be a conservative Republican.

I was always just a Republican. Like I'm not a social conservative. I was Jewish, I went to Hebrew school till I was 12, went to church for a little while. So, I'm sort of in and out of faith. But it was really muscular foreign policy, economics, America's place in the world. That was what kept me there.

But then I moved to California, and I realized like I you live in a place like California, Ken, like if you're not going to make friends with Democrats, you're going to be lonely.

But I would say that it doesn't surprise me so much anymore, but I'll say this is that we always make the joke, like I wish we could go back to arguing about marginal tax rates.

I mean, I worked on the 2004 Bush campaign. Like that was a major bone of contention between Bush and Kerry. Whether the top marginal tax rate was going to be like 36.8 or 35.4.

And think about that. I mean, that was a Democrat in 2004, like sub 40% for wealthy people. Like think about that. So, just think about how far the windows moved.

And so, am I surprised? Not anymore. But I will also say this, is that I have been overwhelmingly heartened by all of the people, and I have met thousands of people in this journey from coast to coast who are dedicated to the cause.

Most of them, you're never going to know their names. Most of their organizations you're never going to hear of. They do incredible work. They're understaffed, they're underpaid, and they gut up every day because they believe in it. And that's what makes the country great.

We have all this other stuff. We have the biggest economy, and the most toys, and the biggest army and everything else. But the truth is that like there are individual Americans out there who are working day and night to make sure that come November, the good guys win.

And there are good guys and bad guys. That's the other part. Like we should be very clear, like in a policy debate, Ken, you can absolutely have shades of gray. Because ultimately, policy is going to devolve to compromise. That's just how things work.

In a campaign, it's a binary choice. You win or you lose. There's no moral victory in a campaign. You can say, “Oh, we came close.” Okay, great. Still, you're sitting at home while the other guy goes and takes an oath to the constitution.

And so, what I would say is that like it is a black and white fight, and if you have the ability to get off the sideline and on the right side, from my perspective, it's up to you as an American to do that.

Ken Harbaugh:

Yeah, I'm with you a hundred percent. I think one of our great strengths as a movement is that belief that you've talked about.

And I know there are fervent, diehard Trump supporters among the rank and file, but I look at the leadership of that movement and to a person, they all seem like cynics to me. Their hearts aren't really in it morally.

They've rationalized intellectually, but they don't actually believe the election was stolen. They don't actually believe the QAnon nonsense. They're performative. And I think that is to our benefit.

Reed Galen:

I think you're right. And I mean, well, I would say this about Trump is Trump doesn't have any innate belief other than in himself. So, you have to sort of put him aside. But the rest of them, Hawley, Cruz, Cotton, Stefanik, you name it. Like they all know what they're doing.

And in some ways, Ken, they worry me more because what they have said is, to your point, “I'm willing to trade everything to be this person. And if this is what I need to be and what I need to do …”

I think that there's no limit to the things that they would do to maintain that sort of fervor of the convert. They all have to convert. Their people are true believers.

And look, just think about it was like a year and a half ago or so when Trump, I think in Alabama was at a rally, he is like, “Go out and get vaccinated.” He got booed. Like those are the true believers. That's ultra MAGA staring you at the face. And Cruz …

I mean, look, and that's the other part. Like these people all lie. They're all the elite. They all went to Ivy League colleges.

Like I'm a state school guy. Like I know BS when I see it. I've known Cruz since 2000. I've seen him up close for a long time. Like none of this surprises me. He's always been this person. He's always been this person.

And like so much in life, it was the path of least resistance. I can go this way, it's the right way, but it's troublesome and my career might end.

Or I can go this way and what do I care. These rubes, they're going to give me all their money. And then the billionaires are going to give me their money, and then we're going to do whatever's best for us and probably the billionaires, and we'll be in charge.

And you know what? Nobody cares anyway, because to your point, it's a nihilism of lull, nothing matters.

Ken Harbaugh:

You shared this observation with me once, that the only people they hate more than us is themselves. I mean, it really is a den of vipers in that way. When fundamental beliefs aren't undergirding anything you're doing, I mean, it leads to just this vicious inner fighting.

Reed Galen:

Yeah, I mean, look, let's take a real time example, which is Marjorie Taylor Greene is after speaker Mike Johnson.

Now, they got rid of Kevin McCarthy, who was not a true believer, and everybody knew he wasn't a true believer. But he was willing to play the game. They got rid of him, and then they got a back bencher in Johnson. And now, she's after him.

And my guess is she's after him simply to scare him away on Ukraine or immigration. Take your pick, whatever it is.

But she doesn't care about the country and she doesn't care about governing. She only cares about making sure that she's in the middle of something and she gets all the attention or as much of the attention as she can.

Again, if any of these guys had to knife one another, metaphorically of course, to get ahead, they would in a heartbeat, they would not stop.

Because again, at the end of the day, they don't care about anything. It's not about the opportunity to serve America, it's about the opportunity to turn Americans into subjects.

And so, yeah, there's no coherent morality, there's no coherent philosophy, there's no coherent political program. They're a gang, Ken. Power, money, territory. That's it.

Ken Harbaugh:

It seems to me like Americans, broadly speaking, are beginning to see that. I mean, there are punishing republicans, certainly Republican policies, every chance they get at the polls.

I think the latest Supreme Court decision in Arizona is a great case study of that and what's going to happen as a result. What is your prediction going into the ‘24 election?

Reed Galen:

Every time I make a prediction, I get it horribly wrong. So, I should just say whatever the opposite is.

So, let me break it down like this. I can both quantify and qualify how Joe Biden gets reelected. That doesn't mean he will, but that means I can put together in my head the different coalitions in different states by number of how many votes he needs or what percentage of the vote he needs to get there.

I can qualify why Joe Biden should be reelected, whether or not it's on fundamental decency, calm, policy, whatever it is.

I can't quantify how Donald Trump gets reelected in my head because his coalition is smaller, older, whiter, more male, and more extreme than it was in ‘16 or ‘20.

He's going out of his way to alienate Republicans like I used to be by saying terrible things about Nikki Haley or flat out saying, “If you're a rhino, I don't want you.” And the only qualification he has is his name is Donald Trump.

And so, I'd rather be on the Joe Biden side of that equation than the Donald Trump side of that equation.

And let me just say this too, is that, yeah, money and politics doesn't buy you victory, but it buys you options. And campaigns matter on the margins. Biden has a better campaign, better apparatus, more money.

Trump has less money, a more whacked out campaign. And he single-handedly wrecked his own get out the vote operation by saying he doesn't believe in earlier mail-in voting.

So, like just on the mechanics and the logistics of it too, I feel good about Biden, but as you know, Ken, it's always the externality. And to be a bit in politics is like Thurgood Marshall always said everybody always forgets about the girlfriend. It's always that thing out there that we're not expecting.

Ken Harbaugh:

What happens after this? I'm going to play the optimist for a second. Let's say we defeat Trump, we deliver the harshest rebuke to Trumpism itself and relegate its adherence to the dustbin of history, the Stefaniks, and the Johnsons, and the others.

I can't imagine you and I arguing the same way we would have 10 years ago about the marginal tax rate. I mean, politics is going to be forever changed it feels like.

We have stared into the abyss and the things that seemed existential before won't going forward because we have seen democracy itself on the brink.

Reed Galen:

Well, I think you're a hundred percent correct on that. And so, look, I think that aside from Joe Biden's reelection being a bridge to the futures, which is what he said he wanted to be in four years ago, I think it's also, a bridge to a new and different American future, and potentially better.

And I'll say this, I read a lot as I mentioned, and I know you got to go in a minute so I’ll make this quick is … and if you read a book that was written before COVID, they almost seem quaint. And so, then you read a book that was written during or after COVID, and it's more real.

And we are in the after times now, Ken. Like if we get Biden back in the White House, we can officially say that the post-war era has ended.

The post-war era has ended. It was 80 years. Now, where are we going to go from here? And what do we want to do?

And we have big issues on the international stage, on the domestic front. I mean, we could go into hours and hours on the American economy and what that looks like, big tech, all of this stuff.

The hydras that basically, maybe they're not governmental, but are corporate or otherwise in nature that have allowed to wrap themselves around the American people. And I think there's a real opportunity for those discussions to be had.

Now, that being said, that doesn't mean MAGA will go away. And I think that Alabama with IVF and Arizona show you and with Florida, like ultra MAGA is a real thing. And it has seeped into the old Confederacy, into the mountain west.

And so, while we might've cut the head off the octopus, it's still got eight arms that are out there rigging around (I'm mixing all my metaphors here, sorry) that still have to be taken care of.

But I would say this is that that's a lot more doable with Trump gone. And we've seen this throughout history, is that when the leader goes, a lot of the followers have almost this sort of Rip Van Winkle effect. Like what was I doing? What was I thinking?

And suddenly they come back to the fore and then all of the nuttiest of the nuts who came out of the woods for Trump go back away because they said the whole thing was rigged anyway, I knew there was a reason I didn't participate.

So, I think there's a real opportunity to actually bring a lot of American voters back to sanity as well.

Ken Harbaugh:

I hope you're right, Reed. Wonderful talking with you.

Reed Galen:

Yeah. And listen, I hope everybody there will check out The Lincoln Project podcast and check out my Substack, The Home Front. And, Ken, thank you for what you, and Dan, and everybody are doing.

Ken Harbaugh:

Absolutely. We'll put a link to all that in the show notes. Great having you, Reed.

Reed Galen:

Thanks, Ken.

Ken Harbaugh:

Thanks for listening to Burn the Boats. If you have any feedback, please email the team at [email protected]. We're always looking to improve the show.

For updates and more, follow us on Twitter @Team_Harbaugh. And if you enjoyed this episode, don't forget to rate and review.

Burn the Boats is a production of Evergreen Podcasts. Our producer is Declan Rohrs, and Sean Rule-Hoffman is our audio engineer. Special thanks to Evergreen executive producers, Joan Andrews, Michael DeAloia, and David Moss.

I'm Ken Harbaugh, and this is Burn the Boats, a podcast about big decisions.

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